It's back to nice fall weather again today. It will not last; not this time of year. However, the general outlook for most of the rest of the month is for warmer and drier than average weather to persist, more or less. Given that long-range seasonal forecasting is just about one spell shy of witchcraft, here is what we know about the upcoming winter.

Sea-surface temperatures around Alaska and Siberia are warmer than average, but colder than a year ago. Snow cover in Alaska and Siberia is considerably deeper than one year ago. The Pacific Ocean is likely to be in an La Niña phase. These factors suggest this upcoming winter across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest will likely be much colder and snowier than last winter, with some likelihood of it actually being colder and snowier than average.

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